Debt levels have surged since the mid-1990s and have reached historic highs across the OECD. High debt levels can create vulnerabilities, which amplify and transmit macroeconomic and asset price shocks. Furthermore, high debt levels hinder the ability of households and enterprises to smooth...

We develop ´EIRE Mod (Elementary Irish Real Economy Model), a core DSGE model suitable for policy analysis in Ireland. The model’s underlying structure, with a distinction between the traded and non-traded sectors and an import content of exports component, is designed to replicate the highly...

The financial sector played a key role in triggering the recent crisis. Negative feedback loops between the financial sector and the real economy have further increased the persistence and amplitude of the downturn. We examine such macrofinancial linkages through the lens of the housing market....

Since the onset of the financial crisis, consumption has fallen in many economies. This paper presents a small-scale DSGE model with occasionally binding credit constraints. Indebted households start facing credit constraints when the value of their main asset, which we assume to be housing,...

This paper sheds light on the scale of fiscal consolidation that will be needed toensure long-term sustainability and on the potential benefits of institutional reforms inmitigating budget pressures of social spending. Based on alternative scenarios, resultssuggest that, in several OECD...

The fact that the literature tends to find biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing claim in the academic and policy arenas for the need to introduce independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, like the European Commission (EC) in the case...

The fact that the literature tends to find optimistic biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing recognition in the academic and policy arenas of the need for independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, such as the European Commission in the case...

We present evidence pointing to the fact that international agencies' fiscal forecasts were affected to some extent by the same type of problems that the literature widely acknowledges for governmental ones. Informational shortages may lead independent agencies' staff to internalize “political...