This paper takes a critical look at available proxies of uncertainty. Two questions are adressed: (i) How do we evaluate proxies given that subjective uncertainty is inherently unobservable? (ii) Is there such a thing as a general macroeconomic uncertainty? Using correlations, some narrative...

To evaluate measures of expectations I examine and compare some of the most common methods for capturing expectations: the futures method which utilizes financial market prices, the VAR forecast method, and the survey method. I study average expectations on the Federal funds rate target, and the...

We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long...

This paper sets up a simple model for interventions and interest rate setting assuming that the policy maker cares about deviations in inflation from a target level. Under a quadratic cost of interest rate adjustments and interventions the policy maker should use a combination of interest rate...

If floating exchange rates stabilize shocks rather than create shocks, a country that joins a monetary union or fixes its exchange rate looses a stabilizing mechanism. We use a first difference structural VAR on trade weighted macroeconomic data to study the role of floating exchange rates for...

This paper uses a dynamic stochastic rational expectations model of a small open economy to shed some light on factors determining exits from a fixed to a flexible exchange rate regime. Exits are in the model determined by a concern for macroeconomic stabilization. If cost-push shocks are...