We analyze the economic and political determinants of country credit risk in both developed and emerging economies by using sovereign yield spreads as risk indicators. We document a high degree of model uncertainty and apply Bayesian Model Averaging to deal with this issue. GDP growth and...

This paper analyzes determinants of country default risk in emerging markets, reflected by sovereign yield spreads. The results reported so far in the literature are heterogeneous with respect to significant explanatory variables. This could indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the...

This paper investigates how the announcement of negative information about a celebrity endorser impacts firm value, as measured by abnormal stock returns. The unique data sample consists of 93 celebrity disgraces that occurred between 1986 and 2011, affecting firms listed on US stock exchanges....

We examine how local and global political risks affect industry return volatility. Our central premise is that some industries are more sensitive to political events than others. We find that industries that are more dependent on trade, contract enforcement, and labor exhibit greater return...

We investigate how politics (party orientation, national elections, and strength of democratic institutions) affect stock market volatility. We hypothesize that labor-intensive industries, industries with larger exposure to foreign trade, industries whose operations require efficient contracts,...

The available evidence on the effects of political variables on both returns and volatility of aggregate stock indices is scant and mixed. Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to a panel dataset of 17 parliamentary democracies spanning the post-war period until 1995, we test the robustness of...

In countries with secure property rights, corporate transparency improves investment efficiency and increases growth by alleviating information asymmetry. However, in countries with insecure property rights, greater transparency can increase the risk of government expropriation. Therefore some...

We apply a structural pricing model to bond market data in order to estimate the default risk for Argentina in 2000/2001. The model explicitly considers short-term and long-term debt service payments and their dependencies by employing compound option theory. In this way, it is possible to take...

During takeover battles, a tender offer provides a call option right to the target's shareholders: it guarantees the offered price but maintains the chance of a higher offer. We present an options-based approach to estimate the probability and expected value of higher competing takeover bids...