episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second …, we assess the behavior of macroeconomic and financial variables during these episodes of very high uncertainty. This … markets. We find that very high uncertainty episodes are associated with a weaker growth performance and sharp declines in …

episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second …, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and financial variables during these episodes of very high uncertainty. This … markets. We find that very high uncertainty episodes are associated with a weaker growth performance and sharp declines in …

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

then used to characterize the evolution of expectations and uncertainty, the propagation of the shocks, the contribution of …, I show how the methods can be used to capture the link between uncertainty and the state of the economy. Finally, I …, welfare, and uncertainty. All results are derived analytically, do not require numerical integration, and are therefore …

Conditional Value-at-Risk. …

We devise an estimation methodology which allows preferences estimation and comparative statics analysis without a …

frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of …

explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point … forecasts and the median values of individual forecasters’ uncertainty based on subjective probability distributions of survey … uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …