Research in both economics and psychology suggests that, when agents predict the next value of a random series, they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler’s fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The gambler’s fallacy is to expect a negative...

A new estimator of bid-ask spreads is presented. When the trade direction is known, any estimate of the spread is associated with a unique series of conjectural mid-prices derived by adjusting the observed transaction price by half the estimated spread. It is shown that the covariance of...

The performance of bid-ask spread estimators is investigated using simulation experiments. All estimators are much more accurate if the data are sampled at high frequency. In high-frequency data, the Huang-Stoll estimator, which requires order flow information, generally outperforms Roll-type...

Some theories predict that exchange rate bubbles should deflate faster than they inflate. We find no empirical support for this hypothesis for currencies that floated against the US dollar. The bursting of exchange rate bubbles is not analogous to collapses in the prices of financial assets....

In this paper, we modify the Huang and Stoll (1997) spread-decomposing model to fit multi-dealer markets. In a multi-dealer market, individual dealers can rebalance their inventories either by trading with other dealers or changing the quote price. Our modified model captures this feature. Using...

Bankruptcy prediction is a key part in corporate credit risk management. Traditional bankruptcy prediction models employ financial ratios or market prices to predict bankruptcy or financial distress prior to its occurrence. We investigate the predictive accuracy of corporate efficiency measures...

Production function estimates are provided for Soviet production and gross national product for the period 1950-86. A variety of alternative specifications is tested, including Cobb-Douglas, constant elasticity of substitution and variable elasticity of substitution production functions, and an...

The robust negative correlation between openness and inflation found in cross-country data for the 1970s and 1980s has disappeared in the 1990s. There is now a strong negative correlation of inflation with per capita GDP, as higher-income countries have achieved significant disinflation not...

According to theory, inflation persistence should have less variance across countries under pegged than floating exchange rates, but not necessarily a lower mean. The paper tests this prediction on postwar data for OECD countries. After allowing for the upward bias to persistence estimates...

It has recently been suggested that allowing for switches between different inflationary regimes produces a much better fit for the Fisher relationship between interest rates and inflation, at least for U.S. data. The paper assesses the merits of the regime-switching theory as an explanation for...