In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...

In this paper we propose to exploit the heterogeneity of forecasts produced by different model specifications to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then to construct an empirical...

contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.

This paper provides a full technical account of the Italian General Equilibrium Model (IGEM), a new dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy developed at the Department of Treasury of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance. IGEM integrates typical New Keynesian...

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

We reconsider the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the context of a new-keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We assume that a fraction of the agents are non Ricardian and estimate the model parameters using Bayesian techniques. Our results show that the estimates of...

Should euro-area economies be modelled in an aggregate (area-wide) fashion or in a disaggregate (multi-country) one? This article tackles that question from both statistical and economic viewpoint. From a statistical viewpoint, aggregation bias criteria are found to signal that the degree of...

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while...

INTRODUCTION;ROLE OF FINANCIAL VARIABLES;A TWO-STEP APPROACH TO MODEL INFLATION ; MODELLING LONG-MEDIUM TERM COMPONENT OF INFLATION ;A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF INFLATION; 4 TWO FORECASTING APPLICATIONS IN REAL-TIME; REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF MONTHLY INFLATION; MODEL FORECASTS...