An indexed unit of account is a money analogue, used to express prices; the unit's purchasing power is defined by an index. Indexed units of account are not true money in that they are not used as a medium of exchange. The first successful indexed unit of account, the Unidad de Fomento (UF) has...

Uncertainty about national income growth poses significant macroeconomic risk to households all over the world. To help reduce investors' exposure, researchers have proposed a controversial new set of security markets called macro markets. These international markets would trade long-term claims...

Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by a distributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate...

Long historical averages of real earnings help forecast present values of future real dividends. With aggregate U.S. stock market data (1871-1986), a vector-autoregressive forecast of the present value of future dividends is, for each year, roughly a weighted average of moving-average earnings...

This paper relates the 2006-2008 meltdown in mortgage markets to falling asset prices, excessive psychological reaction to the burst bubble, and new mortgage vehicles incapable of accommodating sudden changes in asset values. A combination of market-based and regulatory innovations are proposed....

Land isn't that scarce and people just don't seem to understand how little housing should and will appreciate long term. These irrational expectations are likely to bite us again and again with more housing bubbles, according to Robert Shiller.

We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate...

A life-cycle portfolio for personal accounts within Social Security, such as President George Bush has proposed, would adjust risk exposure as a function of the worker's age. This would involve the government in making complex dynamic portfolio decisions for individuals. The conventional rule of...

Robert Shiller looks at over 100 years of data and asks the question every homeowner wants to know: what is the short-term and long-term prognosis for real estate values? The news isn't reassuring, but luckily risk markets are being developed to help people hedge or buy insurance against the...