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General correcting formulae for forecasts

Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110243

IMPORTANT CONCERN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

SINTEA (ANGHEL) LUCICA - In: Annals - Economy Series 3 (2014) June, pp. 184-187

see the possible realization of an act or event under certain conditions. Uncertainty is caused by emotional status of the … decision maker due to more subjective factors or to the knowledge to achieve an objective. Risk is a combination of the two … elements characterized by a possible description of probabilities under insecurity uncertainty conditions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011150688

The ruptures in the probability scale and some problems of modelling.

Harin, Alexander - In: Economics Bulletin 30 (2010) 2, pp. 18-18

The report, that has been presented on the Third International Conference on Mathematical Modelling of Social and Economical Dynamics MMSED-2010, is devoted to applications of the modern achievements of probability theory to economics. The "four-fold-pattern" paradox is used as an example of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835965

Solution of the Ellsberg paradox by means of the principle of uncertain future

Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains an (hidden) uncertainty. The first … an uniform solution of the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, of the Allais paradox, risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835901

Ruptures in the probability scale? Calculation of ruptures’ dimensions

Harin, Alexander - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

The article raises the question of possible existence of ruptures, gaps in the probability scale which are caused by noises, uncertainties. A hypothesis of existence of such ruptures may be used to solve a number of problems of, e.g., utility theory in economics. The calculations give the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008587482

The theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale.

Harin, Alexander - In: Economics Bulletin 30 (2010) 2, pp. 16-16

The report, that has been presented on the IX International Conference on Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, is devoted to the probability theory and economics. The theorems of existence of the ruptures near the borders of finite intervals and of the probability scale have been proved. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010629321

Risks and Uncertainties in Agriculture

Sima, Isabella; Marin, Camelia - In: International Journal of Academic Research in … 1 (2011) 1, pp. 51-55

where management unit had no reliable data on variable factors, or in other words, when decisions must be taken under risk …Decisions’ optimization in agriculture assumed, in general, choosing the most appropriate way to act in situations … and uncertainties. In some agricultural holdings, a significant number of decisions were taken on empirical interpretation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010706163

Le projet Harmonie

Landry, Richard; Rivard, Suzanne - Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche en Analyse des … - 2000

Managing large software project in general, and the implementation of ERPs in particular, entails several risks. Such was project Harmonie the implementation of SAP R/3 in support of the human resources, finance, and materials management processes at Hydro-Quebec. The size of the project, along...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100848

Types of Decisions Based on Multi-Criteria Analysis Applicable to Extractive Industry. Theoretical Approaches

Vasile, Emilia; Carapancea, Daniela; Balan, Mariana - In: Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics 11 (2011) 1, pp. 267-276

decisions based on multicriteria analysis of situations considered. Due to the diversity and complexity of decision problems …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067034

Risk management in a globalised cosmetic firm

Cucchiella, Federica; Gastaldi, Massimo - In: International Journal of Logistics Economics and … 1 (2007) 1, pp. 21-33

and resilience of their supply networks through strategic and tactical decisions. Therefore, a decision-support tool that … assists managers to evaluate the risk exposure of their supply networks can considerably increase the robustness/resilience of … these networks. In this paper, focusing the attention on a cosmetic sector where the uncertainty is even more high, it is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005753740