The estimations in this paper show that there is a high risk that a very significant share of the workers registered in the work history of the main social security institution of Uruguay (the BPS) will not be able to comply with the condition of contributing 35 years to access the pension when...

In this paper we analyze the recent performance, perspectives and some policy options for two public social security programs in Uruguay: pensions and unemployment insurance. We review the impact of these programs on public expenditure, including recent and expected future trends, and on income...

We simulate the budget of the main pension institution of the country, the Banco de Previsión Social (BPS), from 1995, the year the reform was passed, to 2050, when the new system should be mature. We perform several sensitivity analyses to evaluate which are the key exogenous variables and...

Social Security systems in Latin America prior to the reforms exhibited some problems that have been reported also in other parts of the world, including OECD countries. This is the case for instance of the increasing pressure that the pension system put on fiscal accounts. Other problems that...

Incomplete and highly fragmented work histories threaten to leave many contributors of the pension schemes in Latin America without the minimum pension guarantee or even without access to the ordinary pension. We propose a methodology to assess this risk, identify vulnerable groups and study...

The aim of this paper is to present the macroeconomic model used to simulate the part of the Uruguayan pension system covered by the Banco de Previsión Social.The model in this paper is a variant of the overlapping generation models that have been extensively used to study fiscal policy in...

This paper summarizes our simulations of the fiscal effects of the recent reform of the Uruguayan pension system for the 1996-2050 period. According to our results, fiscal effects of the reform crucially depend on what happens with the retirement age and with evasion in the new regime. We get...

Excess distortions in the welfare state might be the consequence of the government's lack of ability to commit not to help "unlucky" agents. Incentive considerations that are crucial in standard insurance in the presence of moral hazard, plays no role in this case. As a consequence, the...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic impacts of the reform of public services in Uruguay. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate different policy scenarios, analyzing the reforms of the regulatory framework of public services, changes in their investment policies,...

The reform of the Uruguayan social security system approved in 1995 might raise national savings in the median and long run, if it induces increases in mean retirement ages or causes a substantial reduction of evasion. Otherwise, the reform might cause a reduction of national savings....