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Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies

Bernhofer, Dominik; Fernández-Amador, Octavio; … - In: Focus on European Economic Integration (2014) 2, pp. 52-75

Traditional approaches to separate the underlying trend of potential output from cyclical developments mostly rely on the concept of nonaccelerating inflation output and are thus unable to detect upswings caused by the financial cycle, which often appear to be unsustainable in the long run. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818126

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries

Haugh, David; Ollivaud, Patrice; Turner, David - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2009

This paper examines the characteristics of downturns and subsequent recoveries following past banking crises in OECD countries as well as evidence of any effects on potential output growth. It is differentiated from previous analyses because it makes use of OECD measures of the output gap and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005046244

Was kostet die Krise? Mittelfristige Wachstumsperspektiven in Deutschland, 2010 - 2014

Buchen, Teresa; Carstensen, Kai; Henzel, Steffen; … - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

2009 ist eine Diskussion darüber entbrannt, inwieweit die derzeitige Finanzkrise Einfluss auf die mittelfristigen … ist. Dazu wird das Produktionspotenzial im Rahmen einer Wachstumsbilanzierung unter Zuhilfenahme von strukturellen … Zeitreihenmodellen abgeschätzt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass das Niveau des Produktionspotenzials aufgrund der Finanzkrise …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008472806

Estimating Sri Lankaâ€™s Potential Output

Ding, Ding; Nelmes, John; Perera, Roshan; Tulin, Volodymyr - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014

data series including inflation, actual output, unemployment and capacity utilization. The estimation results suggest that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142089

Adapting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for Very Small Open Economies

Grech, Aaron George - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used method, particularly in potential output studies. However its suitability depends on a number of conditions. Very small open economies do not satisfy these as their macroeconomic series exhibit pronounced trends, large fluctuations and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107502

Investigating potential output using the Hodrick-Prescott filter: an application for Malta

Grech, Aaron George - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

Modern economics assumes that in the long run an economy develops in a balanced way, with full employment of resources and a constant inflation rate. The output level thereby achieved is called „potential output‟. Knowing the extent of the output gap, or the deviation from this equilibrium,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011113642

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs

Furlanetto, Francesco; Gelain, Paolo; Sanjani, Marzie Taheri - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014

The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010800969

Producto potencial y ciclos económicos en México, 1980.1-2006.4

Loría, Eduardo; Ramos, Manuel G.; Jesús, Leobardo de - In: Estudios Económicos 23 (2008) 1, pp. 25-47

Through the use of Structural Times Series Models we estimated: potential output, the output gap and the business cycles for the Mexican GDP (1980.1-2006.4). We found that: a) the potential output has varied sharply for two different time periods: 2.1% (1980.4-1994.4) and 3.7% (1995.4-2006.4);...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004991445

INVESTIGATING MACROECONOMIC STABILITY USING THE OUTPUT GAP

TITAN, Emilia; GEORGESCU, Vladimir - In: Romanian Statistical Review 61 (2013) 2, pp. 45-59

The purpose of the article is to illustrate the importance of the output gap in analysing macroeconomic stability in general and business cycle dynamics in particular. Ten EU countries are considered, with five old members and five new members. For all ten countries the data for the period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010659114

Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches

S. Adnan H. A. S., Bukhari; Safdar Ullah, Khan - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

The objective of this study is to estimate potential output vis-à-vis output gap for Pakistan’s economy. This paper reviews six commonly used techniques to estimate potential output and from that the output gap. The results suggest that while measures of output gap are not identical they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005837409