New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been exten-sively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macro-economic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check...

This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same as...

Arms races - enduring rivalries between pairs of hostile powers, which prompt competitive acquisition of military capability - appear to be a pervasive phenomenon. From the past Cold War competition, between the US and the USSR, to present regional antagonisms, such as India and Pakistan, arms...

This article presents estimates of demand functions for arms imports for a panel of 52 countries, 1981–99, where there are non-zero observations for both the main measures, WMEAT and SIPRI. In principle, the WMEAT series is a value measure, while the SIPRI series is a volume measure, thus...

type="main" xml:id="obes12046-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>This article considers some of the technical issues involved in using the global vector autoregression (GVAR) approach to construct a multi-country rational expectations (RE) model and illustrates them with a new Keynesian model for 33 countries...</p>

We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic structure on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings,...

This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after...