We consider efficient methods for likelihood inference applied to structural models. In particular, we introduce a particle filter method which concentrates upon disturbances in the Markov state of the approximating solution to the structural model. A particular feature of such models is that...

Andrieu et al. (2010) prove that Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers still converge to the correct posterior distribution of the model parameters when the likelihood estimated by the particle filter (with a finite number of particles) is used instead of the likelihood. A critical issue for...

This paper explores the role of consumption habits using an estimated nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with heteroscedastic shocks. It finds that habits interact with time-varying volatility to produce a better and more plausible fit to the data. They accentuate the...

This article describes a new approximation method for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The method allows nonlinear models to be estimated efficiently and relatively quickly with the fully-adapted particle filter. The article demonstrates the method by estimating, on US data,...

Substantial demographic shifts are under way in many countries which could have a sizeable impact on trend growth rates over coming decades. This article explores some of these demographic developments, particularly in relation to population growth and age structure, for a range of economies. It...

Global food prices have increased significantly since the early 2000s, reversing the long-run trend decline in relative food prices over previous decades. A range of supply disruptions in key food-producing countries have contributed to higher food prices, along with strong demand from...

This paper examines the statistical properties of inflation in a sample of inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries. First, it analyses the time-varying volatility of a measure of the persistent component of inflation. Based on this measure, inflation-targeting countries...

This paper extends recent ideas for constructing classes of stationary autoregressive processes of order 1. A Gibbs sampler representation of such processes is extended in a straightforward way to introduce new processes. These maintain a linear expectation property which provides a simple...