It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship be- tween inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...

A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against model instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock andWatson (2004) and Clark and McCracken (2009). In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight...

In this paper we consider the real-time implementation of a fiscal policy rule based on tax smoothing (Barro (1979) and Bohn (1998)). We show that the tax smoothing approach, augmented by fiscal habit considerations, provides a surprisingly accurate description of US budget surplus movements. In...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship between inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship be- tween inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...

We propose a new information criterion for impulse response function matching estimators of the structural parameters of macroeconomic models. The main advantage of our procedure is that it allows the researcher to select the impulse responses that are most informative about the deep parameters,...