It is widely recognised that the "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy of the euro-zone is a potential problem. How much of a problem has not been much investigated. It is argued in this paper that it may result in the euro not being sustainable in the longer term without drastic changes to other...

In this paper we propose an index of the fiscal stance suitable for practical use in short-term policy making. The index is based on a comparison of a target level of the debt-GDP ratio for a given finite horizon with a forecast of the debt-GDP ratio based on a VAR formed from the government...

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating sovereign credit ratings. These are determined by mapping the probability that the debt-GDP ratio might exceed a maximum debt limit at some point in the future into a credit rating. The debt limit can be either ad hoc or based on the financial...