We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the US and UK. In contrast to the empirical literature on the 'delayed overshooting puzzle', which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in themodelling process,...

Introducing the approach by Masanao Aoki (1981) to time series econometrics, we show that the dynamics of symmetric linear possibly cointegrated two-country VAR models can be separated into two autonomous subsystems: the country averages and country differences, where the latter includes the...

This note aims to identify the stable long-run relationships as well as unstable driving forces of the world economy using an aggregated approach involving the four largest currency blocks. The small global macromodel encompasses aggregated quarterly US, UK, Japanese and Euro Area data for the...

In this paper we introduce a cointegrated VAR modelling approach for two-country macro dynamics. In order to tackle the curse of dimensionality resulting from the number of variables in multi-country models, we investigate the applicability of the approach by Aoki (1981) frequently used in...

The determination of the $/£ exchange rate is studied in a small symmetric macroeconometric model including UK-US differentials in inflation, output gap, short and long-term interest rates for the four decades since the breakdown of Bretton Woods. The key question addressed is the possible...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. Our aim is to propose a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of post-war UK labour market. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model where...

The recent controversy over model selection in the context of `growth regressions` has led to some remarkably numerous `estimation` strategies, including 4 million regressions by Sala-i-Martin (1997b). Only one regression is really needed, namely the general unrestricted model, appropriately...

In this paper we set up a baseline, but nevertheless advanced and complete model rep-resenting detailed goods market dynamics, heterogeneous labor markets, dual and cross-dual wage-price adjustment processes, as well as counter-cyclical government policies. The cyclical movements of output...