Some economists suggest that the Meese-Rogoff puzzle is equally applicable to the stock market, in the sense that no model of stock prices can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We argue that this is not a puzzle and that we should expect nothing, but this result if...

Purpose – The structure of the Malaysian fund market presents a unique setting in which to examine behavioural and cultural differences in the performance of fund managers. The purpose of this paper is to utilise Taylor's extension of the tournament model of Brown et al. who argued that using...

The exchange rate of the Kuwaiti dinar against the Japanese yen is modelled in terms of the activities of fundamentalists and technicians as well as the effect of the exchange rate arrangement. The results show that market forces, as represented by the activities of traders, play a role in the...

The argument that is put forward in this paper is that failure to represent stochastic trend and stochastic seasonality in an AIDS model leads to a misspecified and possibly structurally unstable model. This proposition is verified by estimating an AIDS model of the demand for alcoholic...

Imad Moosa shows that the effect of triangular arbitrage in the forward market is similar to the combined effect of triangular arbitrage in the spot market and covered interest arbitrage. He also shows that when the forward rates are inconsistent then this implies inconsistency of the spot rates...

This paper presents some empirical evidence on the degree of integration between the goods and financial markets of Japan and six Asian countries. The evidence is obtained by testing two international parity conditions using unconventional specifications: uncovered interest parity (UIP) and ex...

This paper compares the direct and indirect methods of predicting the money multiplier and velocity of circulation in the UK economy. Forecasts are generated using the autoregressive (AR) model and Harvey's structural time series model. In addition to point forecasts, prediction intervals...

This study investigates the nature of seasonality in the monthly stock returns derived from a general index of the Kuwait Stock Exchange. A structural time series model incorporating stochastic dummies reveals that seasonality is present but it is deterministic as implied by the constancy of the...