A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation...

<section xml:id="fut21674-sec-0001"> We assess the causes and implications of the greater financial participation in commodity markets post‐2003. Focusing on crude oil, we build a calibrated macro‐finance model of oil prices and quantities that also determines consumer welfare. We show that shifts in the preferences and...</section>

The main purpose of this paper is to review the evolution of OPEC models and to link this evolution to some key events in the oil market. Our main conclusion is that OPEC’s pricing power varies over time. In many instances, OPEC can lose power to limit oil price movements in either direction....

We present a simple model which establishes a non linear and possibly non monotonic relationship between financial development and economic growth. Applying a threshold regression model to King and Levine™s (1993) data set, we find evidence that is consistent with the main implications...

We present an OLG endogenous growth model in which a reduction in the level of concentration in the banking industry exterts two opposite e.ects on economic growth. On the one hand, it induces economies of specialisation which enhances intermediation e.ciency and thereby eco- nomic growth. On...

We analyze the interaction between bank and market finance in a model where bankers gather information through monitoring and screening.We show that,if a market is established characterized by a disclosure law such that entrepreneurs wishing to raise market finance can credibly disclose their...

This paper develops an overlapping generation model with asymmetric information in the credit market such that the interplay between relationship finance supplied by investors who monitor investment decisions ex-ante and market finance supplied by investors who relay on public information can be...

This paper is a case study of the real world monetary policy data uncertainty problem. The initial and the latest release for growth rates of the distribution, hotels and catering sector are combined with official data on household income and two surveys in a state-space model. Though important...

There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But these models typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs. How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early...