This paper develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia’s (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals...

This paper studies adaptive learning with multiple models. An agent operating in a self-referential environment is aware of potential model misspecification, and tries to detect it, in real-time, using an econometric specification test. If the current model passes the test, it is used to...

This paper studies the Forward Premium Puzzle in a setting where investors doubt the specification of their models, and thus engage in robust portfolio strategies (Hansen and Sargent, 2008). It shows that an empirically plausible concern for model misspecification can explain the Forward Premium...

This paper studies exchange rate volatility within the context of the monetary model of exchange rates. We assume that agents regard this model as merely a benchmark, or reference model, and attempt to construct forecasts that are robust to model misspecification. We show that revisions of...

Using data on U.S. and Japanese government debt, we calibrate a version of Weil's (1989) model and study the international and intergenerational consequences of recent fiscal policy. Assuming debt/GDP ratios stabilize at current levels, the model implies: (1) the world real interest rate rises...

We study different methods of immigration control using a simple model of a congested world. Our main comparison involves quota, the predominant instrument of immigration control, and a proposed system of immigration tolls and emigration subsidies. We show that the equilibrium of the proposed...

We consider a world in which the mode of food production, foraging or agriculture, is endogenous, and in which technology grows exogenously. Using a recent model of coalition formation, we allow individuals to rationally form cooperative communities (bands) of foragers or farmers. At the lowest...

Two exceptions to the argument that export promotion offsets import substitution are provided. The first is based on the observation that protection in small open economies produces monopolisation of the domestic market. The second qualification stems from the discretionary and contingent nature...