This work presents a contribution on operational risk under a general Bayesian context incorporating information on market risk pro le, experts and operational losses, taking into account the general macroeconomic environment as well. It aims at estimating a characteristic parameter of the...

This paper proposes a Near Explosive Random-Coefficient autoregressive model for asset pricing which accommodates both the fundamental asset value and the recurrent presence of autonomous deviations or bubbles. Such a process can be stationary with or without fat tails, unit-root nonstationary...

Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticized for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES...

Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log returns of financial assets. This is usually justified by the...

Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of its...

One possible way of risk management for an insurance company is to develop an early and appropriate alarm system before the possible ruin. The ruin is de ned through the status of the aggregate risk process, which in turn is determined by premium accumulation as well as claim settlement out-go...

When a random field (Xt; t 2 R2) is thresholded on a given level u, the excursion set is given by its indicator 1[u;1)(Xt). The purpose of this work is to study functionals (as established in stochastic geometry) of these random excursion sets, as e.g. the capacity functional as well as the...

We define a new class of positive and Lebesgue measurable functions in terms of their asymptotic behavior, which includes the class of regularly varying functions. We also characterize it by transformations, corresponding to generalized moments when these functions are random variables. We study...

Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticised for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES...

Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all of the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of...