In this paper we provide a useful method to forecast one the most popular technical analysis tool: the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This method is based on the assumption that stock price can be characterized by the standard binomial model widely used for pricing option. The algorithm is as...

Credit and market risks are crucial for financial institutions. In this paper we present the model used by the Central Bank of Chile to conduct the stress tests for commercial banks in Chile. Market risk uses a balance-sheet approach that is consistent with the credit risk. For exchange rate...

The domestic impact of external shocks will depend on the degree of coupling of domestic assets to foreign markets, but also on the spillovers among assets. The covariance between different types of assets could be affected by the new information. Changes in the covariance could come from a...

In this paper we consider an extension of Vasicek’s (1991) model for new consumer fixed-payment credits in the Chilean banking system. Under the assumption that the economy experienced a complete business cycle during 2003-09, we are able to compute the so-called Long-Run Probability of...

This paper addresses the way optimal cash holdings decisions may be affected in episodes of adverse liquidity shocks. Motivated by the recent financial crisis, we are particularly interested in understanding how firm characteristics can explain differences in the adjustment speed to desired cash...

This paper econometrically examines the factors determining the real estate price dynamics in Chile in the period 1990-2007. For such purpose, we use annual data of 419 homes located in the Metropolitan Area and acquired in that period. The results indicate that variables such as age and size...

In this paper we estimate the factor model given by the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), using a statistical model that has not yet been applied to Chilean financial market returns: the Principal Components Method. Using bond and stock indexes, we identify four factors of systematic risk for the...

In this paper we analyze two risk measures using the Binomial Model. In one case we show that the distance-to-default measure is indeed a Z-statistic. In an empirical application we estimate the probability of default for Chilean banks. Our second measure is a pseudo implied volatility which is...

This paper proposes the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, defined as the change in the stock of NPL adjusted by write-offs and standardized by loans, as the main measure to be used for modeling the credit risk of the Chilean banking system. In particular, the paper identifies certain statistical...