This paper intends to investigate the duration dependent feature of Taiwan's business cycles. The constant Markov switching model is revised to take account of the duration dependent feature. The most innovative findings herein are that there is no duration dependence for contraction for the...

This paper finds an asymmetric swing in Taiwan's exchange rate. In contrast to the developed countries, whose exchange rates exhibit long swings in both appreciation and depreciation regimes, the long swing only exists in an appreciation regime for Taiwan. A short swing, however, is found during...

This article examines the relation between stock returns and the World Index for four Pacific Rim economies, i.e. that of Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Malaysia. When the constant International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) and the regime-switching ICAPM are considered, the evidence...

Using Taiwan data, this empirical study delves into the causal links among four disaggregate real government expenditures, real government revenue and real output. The results substantiate that there is (i) neutrality between real government revenue and real government expenditure on economic...

This paper measures the accuracy of using regional cycles to identify national business cycle turning points in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel (MSP) model. Based on the MSP model, it is determined that regional cycles are highly capable of identifying national business cycle turning...

This article adopts the bounds test, developed by Pesaran et al. (2001), to determine whether there is a level long-run relationship exists between Taiwan's real import demand function and it determinants, namely real domestic income and relative prices. It is found that aggregate import...

Using Taiwan data, the study employs Hamilton's (2001) flexible regression model to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The results convincingly support Friedman's hypothesis that a rise in the inflation rate increases inflation uncertainty. This result,...

This article proposes a panel model with a regime switching mechanism to analyse the feature of US business cycles. This Markov Switching Panel model is simple and can easily be estimated using Hamilton's (1989) method. We test the ability of the Markov Switching Panel model to identify US...

This study tests for the presence of Evans’ (1991) periodically collapsing bubbles in four real estate investment trust (REIT) classifications in the US by employing the momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model and the MTAR model with smooth transition in trend (i.e., the LNV-MTAR...