Recent empirical finance research has suggested the potential for interest rate series to exhibit non-linear adjustment to equilibrium. This paper examines a variety of models designed to capture these effects and compares both their in-sample and out-of-sample performance with a linear...

Recent research has suggested that intra-day volatility may possess a component structure, though views differ as to whether this is the consequence of heterogeneous information arrival or the actions of heterogeneous market agents. Estimation results for a HARCH conditional variance model which...

Using recursive and rolling estimation evidence is reported that STAR non-linearity is ever present within the DJIA. Further, the parameters of interest exhibit some temporal dependence. These results suggest that non-linearity is a regular feature of the data that should be modelled and used in...

This paper examines the ability of the forward premium to provide an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate allowing for potential asymmetries. Extant evidence suggests that forward rates provide a biased predictor of future spot rates. Examining the forward premium for 16 countries, only for...

Using a threshold-error-correction model for non-ferrous metals spot-futures prices the study reports evidence that equilibrium adjustment is quicker when the futures price exceeds the spot price. This supports the view that the commodities consumption value leads investors to retain the asset...

Academic research has highlighted the inherent flaws within the RiskMetrics model and demonstrated the superiority of the GARCH approach in-sample. However, these results do not necessarily extend to forecasting performance. This paper seeks answer to the question of whether RiskMetrics...

This paper links variation in the predictive regressions for stock returns, dividend growth and consumption growth to economic and market factors. The nature of these links can reveal whether movement in asset prices occurs primarily through the discount rate or cash flow channel, while they...

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long‐run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards...

Extant empirical research has reported nonlinear behavior within arbitrage relationships. In this article, the authors consider potential nonlinear dynamics within FTSE‐100 index and index‐futures. Such nonlinearity can be rationalized by the existence of transactions costs or through the...