The aim of this paper is to study the oil price adjustment dynamics and to implicitly test the efficiency hypothesis for the oil market. Thus, we propose to study the oil price evolution in a nonlinear framework while testing the interdependence hypothesis between oil and stock markets. Four...

Typical of the AIDS epidemics is that governments in developing countries under-invest in drugs production because of the possible appearance of a curative vaccine. We design a set of financial tools allowing to hedge against this event and achieving full risk-sharing. We show that the...

We argue that the use of rational expectations in monopolistic markets, as typically done, is overly restrictive because the rationale of this approach is not met in those markets. In a model that encompasses a general equilibrium framework, we consider a monopolist (a producer) with subjective...

We analyze how a benevolent, privately informed government agency would optimally release information about the economy׳s growth rate when the agents hold heterogeneous beliefs. We model two types of agent: “conforming” and “dissenting.” The former has a prior that is identical to that...

We consider a regulator providing deposit insurance to a bank with private information about its investment portfolio. As typical in practice, we assume that the regulator does not commit to auditing after any risk report from the bank. We first show that the optimal contract can be implemented...

Typical of the AIDS epidemics is that governments in developing countries under-invest in drugs production because of the possible appearance of a curative vaccine. We design a financial tool allowing to hedge against this event. We show that the introduction of this asset increases social...

This paper investigates simultaneous learning about both nature and others' actions in repeated games, and identifies a set of sufficient conditions assuring that equilibrium actions converge to a Nash equilibrium. Players have each an utility function over infinite histories continuous for the...

This paper extends the convergence result on Bayesian learning in Kalai and Lehrer (1993a, 1993b) to a class of games where players have a payoff function continuous for the product topology. Provided that 1) every player maximizes her expected payoff against her own beliefs, 2) every player...

The present paper shows that a su±cient condition for the existence of a stable solution to an autoregressive neural network model is the continuity and boundedness of the activation function of the hidden units in the multi layer perceptron (MLP). In addition, uniqueness of a stable solution...

A natural conjecture is that speculative trade disappears when individual beliefs become correct through learning. Sandroni in [22] gives a counterexample in an economy with sunspots. We generalize Sandroni's result by showing that the conjecture holds for economies with complete markets only....