This paper provides an empirical framework to analyse the nature of currency crises by extending earlier work of Jeanne and Masson (2000) who suggest that a currency crisis model with multiple equilibria can be estimated using Markov regime switching (MRS) models. However, Jeanne and Masson...

We collect data on a number of financial restraints, including restrictions on deposit and lending interest rates and reserve and liquidity requirements, from central banks of six developing countries. We estimate the effects of these policies on financial development, controlling for the effect...

*There is widespread concern about rising levels of debt prompted by the rising overall levels of debt and the increasing reports of people having difficulties in managing their debts. *Analysis of the data on wealth and borrowing in the British Household Panel Survey in 1995 and 2000 finds that...

This study presents an analytical framework to examine the policy reaction function of a central bank in an open economy context while allowing for asymmetric preferences. The paper then empirically examines the policy rule obtained from this framework using quarterly data for the US, Canada,...

This paper investigates the role of financial markets in evaluating the asymmetric impact of monetary policy on real output over the business cycle. We use quarterly US data which cover 1971:q1-2011:q4 and implement an instrumental variables Markov regime switching methodology to account for the...

This paper generalizes the probability method of quantification [Carlson and Parkin, Economica, 1975] to the variance facilitating the quantification of business survey data which ask individuals whether or not they are uncertain. In an application to UK manufacturing traditional time-series and...

This paper examines two issues. First, we compare, based on the ratio of output-gap variability to inflation variability, the monetary policy performance of eleven EMU countries for the whole period of the EMS. Second, we examine whether the introduction of an implicit inflation- targeting by...

The aim of this study is to estimate the credibility of monetary policy in four accession countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic), based on the Markov regime-switching (MRS) framework. We utilize the theoretical proposition that in the conduct of monetary policy,...

"We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting...