The partially predictable character of stock returns is a sufficient condition to deduce that, at any time t, rational stockholders do not require a risk premium but a set of premia scaled by the horizon of the investment. Using expectations of the S ? P industrial stock price index in the NYSE...

Abstract. Using Consensus Economics survey data on JPY/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate expectations for the 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989 – December 2012 we first show that expectations fail to unbiasedness tests and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality....

Using Consensus Economics survey data on JPY/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate expectations for the 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989 – December 2012 we first show that expectations fail to unbiasedness tests and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality. Our...

This paper shows that, Rueff (1925, 1931) distinguished [a] a « permanent » unemployment due to excessive real wages relative to the labor productivity, [b] a “temporary” unemployment due to a decline in the economic activity resulting from a cyclic decrease of the price level, and [c] a...

We analyze the empirical relationship between announcement effects and return volatilities of four CAC40 companies using intraday financial and event data from SBF-Euronext and Bloomberg, respectively. We estimate the daily component of the intraday volatility using a FIGARCH model and the...

[eng] Formation of Exchange Rate Expectations: A Mixed Process Hypothesis Georges Prat and Remzi Uctum . This paper analyses how FF/$, DM/$ and Yen/$ exchange rate expectations form over three and twelve months. The basic principle uses the answers of a group of experts to the monthly Consensus...

Le modèle Wage Setting – Price Setting (WS-PS, Layard - Nickel - Jackman (1991)) fondé sur les négociations salariés-employeurs fournit un cadre général théorique simple et opérationnel pour comprendre les évolutions macroéconomiques historiques du chômage et des salaires en France...

[spa] Formación de las anticipaciones en la Boisa, . por Georges Prat.. . En est artículo se analiza cómo los "expertos" (hombres de negocios, economistas, banqueros) forman sus variaciones anticipadas de índice de la cotización de las acciones industnales. Las anticipaciones se miden por...