The paper investigates the link between domestic demand pressure and exports by considering an error correction dynamic panel model for eleven euro area countries over the last two decades. The results suggest that there is a statistically signi?cant substitution e¤ect between domestic and...

Traditionally, exports behavior is modeled only as a function of the foreign demand and the real exchange rate. However, it is by now widely acknowledged that these variables are not able to fully explain exports developments. This paper suggests considering domestic demand pressure as an...

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular...

Institutions which publish macroeconomic forecasts usually do not rely on a single econometric model to generate their forecasts. The combination of judgements with information from different models complicates the problem of characterizing the predictive density. This paper proposes a...

In recent years, one has witnessed a widespread attention on the way monetary policy is conducted and in particular on the role of the so-called monetary policy rules. The conventional approach in the literature consists in estimating reaction functions for a monetary authority (the Federal...

This paper estimates the direct effect of low-cost countries on Portuguese manufacturing import prices, using detailed data both by product and by geographical market for the period 1997-2006. The results point to a negative but modest direct effect when compared with studies available for other...

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in prices and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures markets prices against other popular...

Policymakers need timely and reliable information on the current state of the economy as macroeconomic forecasts and policy decisions are strongly affected by the quality and completeness of this assessment. Therefore, forecasters are always in search of new indicators that are related with the...