We construct a time-varying factor model of hedge fund returns that accounts for market risk, leverage, illiquidity and tail events. We also adjust for database biases arising from voluntary self-reporting. Using a constant beta model, we find no evidence of excess returns for the average hedge...

This note, prepared ahead of the G20 Summit (November 15), builds upon the points laid out in the Managing Director’s letter to the Heads of State and Government (November 9). It lays out two tasks ahead for policy makers. Policies for now should cover:(i)implementing and coordinating...

What explains the cross section of expected returns for the 25 size/value Fama-French portfolios? It is found that modelling time-varying betas is important to explain the cross-section of expected returns, as well as to comply with the time series restriction on Jensen-alpha. Support for a...

Suppose a fund manager uses predictors in changing port-folio allocations over time. How does predictability translate into portfolio decisions? To answer this question we derive a new model within the Bayesian framework, where managers are assumed to modulate the systematic risk in part by...

This study estimates the systematic for the listed companies on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius using the capital asset pricing model and the market model. We then correct for thin trading. Finally, the Schwert and Seguin (1990) model is used to estimate the time variation in beta. The results...

This study looks at the time-varying nature of systematic risk in the Greater China equity markets. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both have a low average systematic risk when measured against the world market. The short outbursts in systematic risk for these two markets seem to be directly...

This paper examines the applicability of CAPM in explaining the risk-return relation in the Malaysian stock market for the period of January 1995 to December 2006. The test, using linear regression method, was carried out on four models: the standard CAPM model with constant beta (Model I), the...

This paper investigates the effect of good or bad news (the asymmetric effect) on the time-varying beta of firms in the UK during good periods (booms) and bad periods (recessions). Daily data from twenty five UK firms of different sizes and from different industries are applied in the empirical...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the systematic risk of the banking industries in eight advanced countries using weekly data from 1990 to 2012. Time-varying betas are estimated by means of a Bayesian state-space model with stochastic volatility, whose results are contrasted with those of the...

This paper investigates the effect of bad or good news (asymmetric effect) on the time-varying betas of firms in the banking industries of the UK and the US during good periods (booms) and bad periods (recessions). Daily data from eleven UK and US firms of different sizes from the banking...