Structural changes in business fluctuations have been gathering attention in Europe and the US in recent years. It has become clear that business fluctuations in the US began to stabilize from the middle of the 1980s, and similar structural changes have been observed in Europe. On the other...

An attempt is made to estimate a state space model of investment and borrowing in a Bayesian framework and extract the unobservable agency cost of Japanese firms by firm size. Our estimates of the agency cost exhibited a declining trend in the late 80s and then switched to an increasing trend in...

Bivariate mixture models attribute the well-known positive correlation between return volatility and trading volume in financial markets to stochastic changes in a single latent variable representing the number of information arrivals. In this article, dynamic bivariate mixture models that allow...

In this paper, we apply the ARFIMA-GARCH model to the realized volatility and the continuous sample path variations constructed from high-frequency Nikkei 225 data. While the homoskedastic ARFIMA model performs excellently in predicting the Nikkei 225 realized volatility time series and their...

In the dynamic factor model, a single unobserved factor common to some macroeconomic variables is defined as a composite index to measure business cycles. This model has recently been developed by combining with the regime switching model so that the mean growth of the index may shift depending...

This paper analyzes the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy. The time-varying parameters are estimated via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method and the posterior estimates of parameters reveal the time-varying structure of the...

We call the realized variance (RV) calculated with observed prices contaminated by microstructure noises (MNs) the noise-contaminated RV (NCRV) and refer to the component in the NCRV associated with the MNs as the MN component. This paper develops a method for estimating the integrated variance...

The realized stochastic volatility model of Takahashi, Omori, and Watanabe (2009), which incorporates the asymmetric stochastic volatility model with the realized volatility, is extended by employing a wider class distribution, the generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t-distribution, for...