Consider a simple change-point model with a binary regressor. We examine the consistency of the change-point estimator when the regressor is subject to misclassification. It is found that the time of change can always be identified. Further, special cases where the structural parameters can also...

This paper investigates the duration dependence of the US stock market cycles. A new classification method for bull and bear market regimes based on the crossing of the market index and its moving average is proposed. We show evidence of duration dependence in whole cycles. The half cycles,...

Following spatial choice theory and MAP methodology, we employ the data drawn from recent nationwide public opinion surveys to probe the latent political choice space in American political competition. Our analyses demonstrate that, in addition to the traditional left–right ideology...

In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to August 2007 to test for randomly modulated periodicity. In doing so, we apply signal coherence spectral analysis to the time...

This paper presents a theory which rationalizes voting in terms of the marginal utility a citizen derives from contributing a small amount of effort in the political process when the cost of voting is small. Citizens abstain when the marginal cost of voting exceeds the marginal perceived...

In this paper, we construct a general probabilistic spatial theory of elections and examine sufficient conditions for equilibrium in two-candidate contests with expected vote-maximizing candidates. Given strict concavity of the candidate objective function, a unique equilibrium exists and the...