This paper attacks the Meese-Rogoff (exchange rate disconnect) puzzle from a different perspective: out-of-sample interval forecasting. Most studies in the literature focus on point forecasts. In this paper, we apply Robust Semi-parametric (RS) interval forecasting to a group of Taylor rule...

This paper attacks the Meese-Rogoff (exchange rate disconnect) puzzle from a different perspective: out-of-sample interval forecasting. Most studies in the literature focus on point forecasts. In this paper, we apply Robust Semi-parametric (RS) interval forecasting to a group of Taylor rule...

Trading portfolios at Financial institutions are typically driven by a large number of financial variables. These variables are often correlated with each other and exhibit by time-varying volatilities. We propose a computationally efficient Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodology based on Dynamic...

This paper proposes a residual based cointegration test with improved power. Based on the idea of Hansen (1995) and Elliott & Jansson (2003) in the unit root testing case, stationary covariates are used to improve the power of the residual based Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The asymptotic...

A quarter-century quest hasn't found the elusive links between economic fundamentals and currency values. ; The U.S. dollar has been losing value against several major currencies this decade. Since 2001-02, the U.S. currency has fallen about 50 percent against the euro, 40 percent against the...

Two approaches for planning manufacturing strategy, a strategic approach and a paradigmatic approach, are introduced. The key decisions of these two approaches are, respectively, located in the choices of competitive priorities and manufacturing paradigms. Three hypothesis models on the...

Despite the importance of international trade firms in China’s economic development, there is only limited empirical evidence about how these firms assimilate Internet-based e-business in global supply chain operations. Using the Technology-Organization-Environment framework, this study...

China’s economic slowdown and changing demographics cloud its housing market’s long-term prospects. While urbanization and a lack of alternative investment opportunities provide short-run support, the housing sector’s difficulties imperil China’s financial sector and the global recovery.

In accordance with the concept of the agricultural natural disasters formed in China, by means of over 20 years of major disasters occurred panel data of recorded, it defined and measured the rates of disaster reduction and disaster affected, and gives the interpretation of mitigation...