The paper investigates explanations for forecasting invariance to structural breaks. After highlighting the role of policy, we isolate possible structural invariance in a simplified dynamic macro model that nevertheless has features in common with the standard model of aggregate demand and...

We give an appraisal of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) as an empirical model of European inflation. We show that existing evidence reported in favour of the NPC on Euro-area and country data is due to a corroborative research strategy. In particular, goodness-of-fit is a weak criterion,...

The objective of this paper is to ease the planning of new toll projects by providing estimates of operating costs, and to help us make better informed decisions about the design of the toll collection system. To do so we use panel data for Norwegian toll companies to estimate average cost...

Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically. We establish that Standard Phillips-curve...

Empirical models of Australian wages and prices are either single equation, equilibrium correction models or structural VAR models. Both theory and empirical evidence from other countries, however, suggests that wages and prices are jointly determined. Consequently, this paper estimates a...

We investigate whether there is a case for asset prices in interest rates rules within a small econometric model of the Norwegian economy, modeling the interdependence of the real economy, credit and three classes of assets prices: housing prices, equity prices and the nominal exchange rate. We...

We present an econometric analysis of wage behaviour in Norway during the interwar years. Applying GMM estimation methods to a newly constructed panel of manufacturing industry data, we find that the interwar years do not seem to be such an anomalous time period as has been suggested with...

Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for...

Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest al- though a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naive forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential...

Estimates of the NAIRU are usually derived either from a Phillips curve or from a wage curve. This paper investigates the correspondence between the operational NAIRU-concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage-price model. We derive the parameter restrictions that secure that...