A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new...

This paper examines how the Tokyo and Osaka rice futures markets in prewar Japan were evolving in view of market efficiency. Applying a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach to analyze the famous equation for the futures premium, we find that the market efficiency of the two major rice...

In this study, we examine how the rice futures market in prewar Japan evolved in light of changes in market efficiency over time. Using a non-Bayesian time-varying VAR model, we compute the time-varying degree of market efficiency of the rice futures exchanges in Tokyo and Osaka. Then, we...

This article develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyse the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in...

We show the nonexistence of the well-known risk-free rate puzzle in the Japanese financial markets. This result crucially depends on the accurate estimates of the two basic parameters: the subjective discount factor and the degree of risk aversion, appearing in the standard Consumption-based...

We show the nonexistence of the well-known risk-free rate puzzle in the Japanese financial markets. This result crucially depends on the accurate estimates of the two basic parameters: the subjective discount factor and the degree of risk aversion, appearing in the standard consumption-based...

This paper examines the adaptive market hypothesis of Lo (2004, 2005) using the Ito and Noda's (2012) non-Bayesian time-varying AR model in Japan. As shown in Ito and Noda (2012), their degree of market efficiency gives us a more precise measurement of market efficiency than conventional moving...

We estimate a time varying autocorrelation of stock returns as a degree of market inefficiency; the relative inefficiency of the U.S. stock market varies from 1955 to 2006.

The purpose of this paper is to present improved estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for Japan assuming a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility function. The estimates of the IES we obtain range from 0.2 to 0.5 when we use quarterly consumption data and the...

The purpose of this paper is to test Abel's (1990, 1999) "Catching up with the Joneses" model with a consumption externality using Japanese financial data. It is found that the model is rejected in Japan when it is estimated using generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimators.