This article examines various state-space and VAR model specifications to investigate the contributions of expected returns and expected dividend growth to movements in the price-dividend ratio. We show that both models involve serious inference problems that need to be dealt with carefully. We...

This paper proposes a latent factor approach based on a state-space framework in order to identify which factor, if any, dominates price fluctuations in the Chinese stock markets. We also illustrate the connection of such stock price decomposition with several general equilibrium asset pricing...

Starting from the asset pricing approach of Engel and West, we examine the degree to which fundamentals can explain exchange rate fluctuations. We show that it is not possible to obtain sharp inferences about the relative contribution of fundamentals using only data on observed monetary...

As first pointed out by Mehra and Prescott (1985), the excess return of equities over the risk-free rate, roughly 6%, is too high to be readily reconciled with a standard intertemporal model. Recently, Bansal and Yaron (2000, 2004) have demonstrated a resolution of the equity premium puzzle when...

In this paper, I use the endogenous structural breakpoint tests to empirically search for a potential structural change in the dynamics of risk free interest rate based on the CKLS model (Chan et al. (1992)). To provide a better finite sample performance of this type of test, I bootstrap the...