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Prediction in time series models with a trend requires reliable estimation of the trend function at the right end of the observed series. Local polynomial smoothing is a suitable tool because boundary corrections are included implicitly. However, outliers may lead to unreliable estimates, if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955437
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Recent results on so-called SEMIFAR models introduced by Beran (1997) are discussed. The nonparametric deterministic trend is estimated by a kernel method. The differencing and fractional differencing parameters as well as the autoregressive coefficients are estimated by an approximate maximum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955524
Duration series often exhibit long-range dependence and local nonstationarities. Here, exponential FARIMA (EFARIMA) and exponential SEMIFAR (ESEMIFAR) models are introduced. These models capture simultaneously nonstationarities in the mean as well as short- and long-range dependence, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011241320
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A flexible class of anisotropic stationary lattice processes with long memory can be defined in terms of a two-way fractional ARIMA (FARIMA) representation. We consider parameter estimation based on minimizing an approximate residual sum of squares. The method can be applied to sampling areas...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008521105
Contemporaneous aggregation of asymptotically stationary AR(1) processes is considered where the squared random coefficients are beta-distributed. Based on the sample correlation coefficients for the individual AR(1) processes, an estimator for the parameters of the underlying beta distribution,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008462402
We derive the limiting null distributions of the standard and OLS based CUSUM-tests for structural change of the coecients of a linear regression model in the context of long memory disturbances. We show that both tests behave fundamentally different in a long memory environment, as compared to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010982314
In this paper we consider the asymptotic distribution of S -estimators in the nonlinear regression model with long-memory error terms. S - estimators are robust estimates with a high breakdown point and good asymptotic properties in the i.i.d case. They are constructed for linear regression. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010982364
Das Abflussverhalten des Rheins wird mittels flexibler saisonaler Modelle mit langem Gedächtnis modelliert. Zur Schätzung der Persistenz wird für jede Saisonfrequenz separat eine Log-Periodogramm Regression durchgeführt. Verglichen mit Standard-ARMA-Prozessen liefern diese Modelle eine gute...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010982400