The influential Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model of balance of payment crises assumes that a fixed exchange rate is abandoned if and only if international reserves reach a critical threshold value. From a positive standpoint, the KFG rule is at odds with many episodes in which the central bank...

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a simple analytical framework that can guide the development of indicators of fiscal policy sustainability in economies which operate in a highly volatile macroeconomic environment.

Central banks typically raise short-term interest rates to defend currency pegs. Higher interest rates, however, often lead to a credit crunch and an output contraction. We model this trade-off in an optimising, first-generation model in which the crisis may be delayed but is ultimately...

Guillermo Calvo, one of the most influential macroeconomists of the last thirty years, has made pathbreaking contributions in such areas as time-inconsistency, lack of credibility, stabilization, transition economies, debt maturity, capital flows, and financial crises. His work on macroeconomic...

This paper analyzes the choice of a nominal anchor in disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries. Both theory and evidence suggest several conclusions. (i) The recessionary effects associated with disinflation appear in the early stages of money-based programs but only in the late...

Exchange rate-based stabilizations in chronic-inflation countries have often been characterized by an initial consumption boom (which is most evident in the behavior of durable goods) followed by a later contraction. This paper provides an explanation for such a boom-recession cycle based on the...

Since 1947, hyperinflations in market economies have been rare. More common have been longer inflationary processes at rates above 100 percent per annum. This paper examines the main characteristics of such very high inflation episodes. We find that (i) almost 20 percent of countries have...

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a simple analytical framework that can guide the development of indicators of fiscal policy sustainability in economies which operate in a highly volatile macroeconomic environment.