Skewness of return has been suggested as a reason why agents might choose to gamble, ceteris paribus, in cumulative prospect theory (CPT). We investigate the relationship between moments of return in two models where agents choices over uncertain outcomes are determined as in CPT. We illustrate...

In two recent contributions Lothian and Taylor, and Cuddington and Liang, produced empirical evidence that annual data for the dollar-sterling real exchange rate spanning two centuries exhibited a non-linear deterministic trend. This trend could be proxying Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effects....

We use the BDS statistic to test for unmodelled structure in the linearly filtered industrial production figures for Canada, France, Japan and the USA between 1919 and 1930. The i.i.d. null is rejected for France and Japan though there is other evidence for nonlinearity in the remaining series....

This paper exploits the result that in the case of I(2) processes the precise dating of variables is crucial when empirically testing for cointegration. The data for the latter part of the German hyperinflation episode exhibit I(2) behaviour. We utilize these data to discriminate between...

The use of the power utility function is problematic in expected utility theory. We show that, this is also the case in cumulative prospect theory, where the power function violates the assumption of loss-aversion at small stake levels, so that an optimal model of gambling is precluded. In the...

This paper examines evidence for interactions between arms spending by NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Empirical work in this area typically starts from some version of the Richardson model. Unfortunately an important characteristic of the data series (non-stationarity) means that results based upon...

In this note the implications of modelling uncertainty in the parameters of the central banks loss function in a multiplicative rather than additive manner are examined. The implications for expected inflation, linear inflation contracts and targets are derived.

Granger and Terasvirta provided an abstract example of a non-linear model that can generate data with the misleading linear property of long memory. They suggested that other non-linear models with this property are worth searching for. The empirical results of this article indicate that data...