This paper presents some empirical evidence on the degree of integration between the goods and financial markets of Japan and six Asian countries. The evidence is obtained by testing two international parity conditions using unconventional specifications: uncovered interest parity (UIP) and ex...

This paper compares the direct and indirect methods of predicting the money multiplier and velocity of circulation in the UK economy. Forecasts are generated using the autoregressive (AR) model and Harvey's structural time series model. In addition to point forecasts, prediction intervals...

This study investigates the nature of seasonality in the monthly stock returns derived from a general index of the Kuwait Stock Exchange. A structural time series model incorporating stochastic dummies reveals that seasonality is present but it is deterministic as implied by the constancy of the...

The performance of three strategies of hedging exposure to foreign exchange risk are evaluated in terms of the ability to optimize the domestic currency value of the exposure. The results, based on data covering the exchange rates of three currencies against the US dollar, reveal that hedging or...

This paper examines the effect of the maturity of the futures contact used as the hedging instrument on the effectiveness of futures hedging. For this purpose, daily and monthly data on the WTI crude oil futures and spot prices are used to work out the hedge ratios and the measures of hedging...

Some economists suggest that the Meese-Rogoff puzzle is equally applicable to the stock market, in the sense that no model of stock prices can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We argue that this is not a puzzle and that we should expect nothing, but this result if...

Following the signing of the Kyoto protocol in 2005, a new wave of green policies emerged with the intention of protecting our planet. This study explores the effects these policies have on capital markets. In particular, we assess how the risk and return of US industrial portfolios react to the...

This paper describes the development of a tool, based on a Bayesian network model, that provides posteriori predictions of operational risk events, aggregate operational loss distributions, and Operational Value-at-Risk, for a structured finance operations unit located within one of Australia's...

High-frequency trading (HFT) has become a household term and a favourite topic for the financial media since the flash crash of May 2010. In this article, it is argued that the criticism directed at HFT is misplaced and based on a misconception of what HFT is all about. Specifically it is argued...

The proposition that dynamic exchange rate models can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting, in the sense that they produce lower mean square errors, is examined and disputed. By using several dynamic versions of three macroeconomic exchange rate models, it is demonstrated that...