We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. A signalling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have relatively serious real...

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance...

Sarlin (2013) suggests that if a loss function approach is chosen to derive the optimal threshold for financial crisis early warning indicators, the loss function specification should explicitly take into account the unconditional sample crisis probability. In this comment we argue that this...

We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries. A quasi real time signaling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have serious real economy...

Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynesian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the...

The paper introduces monetary and fiscal regimes into a Blanchard-Weil overlapping generations model. Contrary to intuition, it is shown that fiscal policy becomes more effective, the less the central bank monetises government debt. Furthermore, there is a degree of debt monetisation at which...

The paper aims at deriving some stylised facts for financial, real, and monetary policy developments during asset price booms by means of aggregating information contained in 38 boom periods since the 1970s for 18 OECD countries. We observe 26 macroeconomic variables in a pre-boom, boom and...

On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we estimated four different equilibrium exchange rate models for the synthetic euro. Using the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such...

The behaviour of the exchange rate under a floating exchange rate regime for a small open economy with perfect capital mobility may appear like a managed float or even a firmer peg. We present a canonical new neo-classical synthesis open economy model where the central bank follows a strategy...

We provide systematic evidence for the association of liquidity shocks and aggregate asset prices during mechanically identified asset price boom/bust episodes for 18 OECD countries since the 1970s, while taking care of the endogeneity of money and credit. Our derivation of liquidity shocks...