We test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. Using thirty-four industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, we establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as retail,...

Statistical inference in predictive regressions depends critically on the stochastic properties of the posited explanatory variable, in particular, its order of integration. Confidence intervals computed for the largest autoregressive root of many explanatory variables commonly used in...

Commercial real estate expected returns and expected rent growth rates are time-varying. Relying on transactions data from a cross-section of U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that up to 30% of the variability of realized returns to commercial real estate can be accounted for by expected return...

We estimate the cross-sectional dispersions of returns and growth in rents for commercial real estate using data on U.S. metropolitan areas over the sample period 1986 to 2002. The cross-sectional dispersion of returns is a measure of the risk faced by commercial real estate investors. We...

Statistical inference in predictive regressions depends critically on the stochastic properties of the posited explanatory variable, in particular, its order of integration. However, confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root of explanatory variables commonly used in predictive...

Relying on a simple general equilibrium model of the term structure, both nominal yields and real consumption growth rates can be shown to be a±ne in the unobservable state variables. We can then express real consumption growth rates in terms of nominal yields rather than the unobservable...

Abel's (1998) intertemporal asset pricing model implies that the autocorrelation pattern in expected returns reflects that observed in output growth rates. Consequently, by using the observed autocorrelation properties of macroeconomic data, we are able to provide univariate tests with power to...

We propose a novel approach to optimizing portfolios with large numbers of assets. We model directly the portfolio weight in each asset as a function of the asset’s characteristics. The coefficients of this function are found by optimizing the investor’s average utility of the...