This paper extends the model of Fielding (1999), which is designed to explain changes in investment in South Africa during the Apartheid period, by allowing a role for indicators of political instability and political and civil rights, as measured by Fedderke et al. (1999). The conclusions based...

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of...

In this paper we develop a model to identify determinants of macroeconomic integration in the African CFA Franc Zone and in Dollar-pegging Caribbean countries (including members of the East Caribbean Currency Union). These two groups of countries each comprise states using several different...

We use time-series data from Israel to investigate the dynamics of the causal links between the intensity of civil conflict and capital flight. The fraction of Israeli capital wealth held outside the country exhibits considerable variation over time. So also do indicators of the intensity of the...

Using a new panel dataset for banks in eight West African countries, we explore the factors that exacerbate or alleviate excess liquidity, and the factors that promote or retard the rate of growth of banks’ assets. Loan default rates in the region are high, and variations in the rate impact on...

In this paper we develop a model to identify real exchange rate and output shocks in the African CFA Franc Zone and in Dollar-pegging Caribbean countries (including members of the East Caribbean Currency Union). These two groups of countries each comprise states using several different local...

In this paper we estimate a time-series model of the financial asset portfolio shares in Egypt, distinguishing between assets of varying degrees of liquidity and between domestic currency and foreign currency deposits. While financial liberalization and financial stability are found to have...

Using quarterly data for the last four decades, we test a number of traditional assumptions about aggregate consumer behaviour in the UK, with regard to the order of integration of the time series, the income elasticity of consumption and the stability of the parameters of the consumption...

We construct a time-series model of investment in Israel that incorporates both traditional economic factors derived from a theoretical model of a profit-maximising representative firm and indicators of political instability and unrest. This is used to estimate the extent to which the Intifada...