We show how to approximate de Finetti's measure of a partially exchangeable sequence by a mixture of products of Dirichlet measures, explicitly built once the approximation error has been fixed. These results are used to give a general method for the elicitation of prior distributions...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of stochastic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters. In particular, we evaluate the impact that a change in the specification of the correlation of the age-specific...

We develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to...

We argue that fertility trends in advanced societies are in part driven by differences in trust. The argument builds around the idea that trust implies individuals and couples being willing to outsource traditional family activities to other individuals outside their own family. Trust is...

Using data from two recent waves of the European Social Survey, we examine the relationship between macro-level supports for child rearing and individual-level fertility outcomes. We characterize country-level support environments across a broader set of domains than is typical, including...