This paper develops a new open economy structural VAR model of the New Zealand economy. The model adopts techniques introduced by Cushman and Zha (1997) and Dungey and Pagan (2000) to identify international and domestic shocks and dynamic responses to these shocks in a small open economy. The...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a com-prehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

This study examines whether the nonlinear adjustment dynamic of stock returns to the equilibrium level in an emerging stock market is symmetrical or asymmetrical. The empirical results suggest that the data generating process of Iran stock returns series is nonlinear Smooth Transition...

This paper tries to identify, for the first time, a chronology for the Portuguese stock market cycle and test for the presence of duration dependence in bull and bear markets. A duration-dependent Markov-switching model is estimated over monthly growth rates of the Portuguese stock index for the...

This paper tries to identify, for the first time, a chronology for the Portuguese stock market cycle and test for the presence of duration dependence in bull and bear markets. A duration dependent Markov-switching model is estimated over monthly growth rates of the Portuguese Stock Index for the...

This paper tries to identify, for the first time, a chronology for the Portuguese stock market cycle and test for the presence of duration dependence in bull and bear markets. A duration dependent Markov-switching model is estimated over monthly growth rates of the Portuguese Stock Index for the...

This paper presents evidence of persistent `bull' and `bear' regimes in UK stock returns and considers their economic implications from the perspective of an investor's portfolio decisions. We find that the perceived state probability has a large effect on the optimal allocation to stocks,...

In this article we present an introduction to various Filtering algorithms and some of their applications to the world of Quantitative Finance. We shall first mention the fundamental case of Gaussian noises where we obtain the well-known Kalman Filter. Because of common nonlinearities, we will...

Understanding and measuring the relative roles of different causal channels between commodity prices and exchange rates has important implications in financial decision making, especially for market participants with short horizons. From a macroeconomic perspective, this can also be useful for...