Showing 1 - 10 of 245
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010826698
We defend the forecasting performance of the FOMC from the recent criticism of Christina and David Romer.  Our argument is that the FOMC forecasts a worst-case scenario that it uses to design decisions that will work well enough (are robust) despite possible misspecification of its model. ...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008506720
The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of individual consumption risk in the economy. It is also known from Barillas et al. (2009) to increase if agents in the economy care about robustness to model misspecification. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010561143
Disinflationary episodes are a valuable source of information for economic agents trying to learn about the economy.  This paper is especially interested in how a policymaker can themselves learn by disinflating.  The approach differs from the existing literature, which typically focuses on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364587
A well-known time-inconsistency problem hinders optimal decision-making when policymakers are constrained in their pesent choices by expectations of future outcomes.  The time-inconsistency problem is caused by differences in the preferences of policymakers who exist at different points in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277854
Why is inflation so much lower and at the same time more stable in developed economies in the 1990s, compared with the 1970s? This paper suggests that the United Kingdom, United States and other countries may have escaped from a volatile inflation equilibrium. Our argument builds on the story...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504556
In this paper we introduce identifying restrictions into a Markov-switching vector autoregression model. We define a separate set of impulse responses for each Markov regime to show how fundamental disturbances affect the variables in the model dependent on the regime. We go to illustrate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423704
In this paper, we examine the incentives for central bank activism and caution in a two-country open-economy model with uncertainty and learning. We find that the presence of a strategic interaction between the home and foreign central banks creates an additional motivation for caution in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423715
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005425224
We introduce learning into a Hotelling model of a non-renewable resource market. By combining learning and scarcity we add significantly to the dynamics implied by learning and substantially enhance the volatility of commodity prices. In our learning model we show how a self confirming...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004973966