We develop a partial adjustment model in order to estimate the factors contributing to banks’ internal target capital ratio, lending policy and holding of securities. The model is estimated on a panel of listed euro area banks and country specific macrovariables. Firstly, banks’ internal...

This paper analyses the importance of individual bank-specific factors on financial stability. First, we use a novel method to model the spreading of the contagion in the interbank network by implementing an epidemiologic model. Actual data on European banks is exploited with simulated...

Using the maximum entropy method, this paper estimates the danger of contagion in the Finnish interbank market in 2005–2007 as well as the existence of contagion during a Finnish banking crisis. The contagion analysis of the early 1990s is able to predict the most troublesome and defaulting...

[eng] Modeling Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Estimating them for the Euro, Dollar and Yen by Laurent Maurin . This paper starts with a discussion of the problematic of equilibrium exchange rates and then presents NATREX. Based on this, we develop a model that studies both the foreign debt and...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>The international financial crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt crisis brought to the fore the importance of financial conditions to the macro-economy. The complexity of the financial sector means that a wide range of financial variables is needed to fully...</p>

Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market...

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the choice of the dataset chosen to estimate the factors. Four datasets are built...

Several factor-based models are estimated to investigate the role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Following Boivin and Ng (2006), the emphasis is put on the role of dataset selection on the empirical performance of factor models....

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap in order to cope with both model uncertainty and parameter instability that are inherent to trend-cycle decomposition models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of...