Wind power forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently due to the increasing penetration of wind energy in national power systems. While the initial focus has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp...

“We have become increasingly aware that our businesses and societies are embedded in complex systems – the economic system, the climate system, and so on – which are globally linked and may be susceptible to sudden change. Forecasting tools developed for the demands of classical astronomy...

Orrell and McSharry, authors of A Systems Approach to Forecasting (issue 14 of Foresight) reply to commentaries by Roy Batchelor, and Paul Goodwin and Robert Fildes. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

In areas from medicine to climate change to economics, we are faced with huge challenges and a need for accurate forecasts, yet our ability to predict the future has been found wanting. The basic problem is that complex systems such as the atmosphere or the economy can not be reduced to simple...

Huge volumes of data now flow from on-line sources — the internet, mobile telephony, weather sensors, and much more. With this data surge, there is an emerging need for computational algorithms to instantly process data streams, sift through large volumes of information, and extract and...

This paper investigates the role of women as shareholders in joint stock companies, and how far they can be characterised as active investors. It is based on a large database of company constitutions, together with procedural records and the pamphlet literature of the period. The penetration by...

A novel proposal for combining forecast distributions is to use quantile regression to combine quantile estimates. We consider the usefulness of the resultant linear combining weights. If the quantile estimates are unbiased, then there is strong intuitive appeal for omitting the constant and...

<DIV><P>Understanding the challenges of corporate governance is central to our comprehension of the economic dynamics driving corporations today. Among the most important institutions in capitalism today, corporations and joint-stock companies had their origins in Europe during the seventeenth and...</p></div>

This paper examines the asymmetric relationship between price and implied volatility and the associated extreme quantile dependence using a linear and non- linear quantile regression approach. Our goal is to demonstrate that the relationship between the volatility and market return, as...