The macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies) is analysed. Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables, as well as inflation and output, out-of-sample forecasts...

French employment increased significantly after a labor-market reform in 2000. This paper analyzes whether that development was driven by work-sharing (the mandated reduction of the workweek length) as claimed by the government. We use a structural VAR model in error correction form (SVECM) to...

Cogan et al. (2009, 2010) claim that the stimulus package passed by the United States Congress in February 2009 had a multiplier far below one. However, the stimulus’ multiplier strongly depends on the assumed monetary policy response. Based on official statements from the Fed chairman,...

The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watson and Gonzalo-Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the framework of the co-integrated vector autoregression. We suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component estimate in a...

Im vorliegenden Report werden die Erwerbstätigenquoten europäischer Länder untersucht, um Teilzeiteffekte bereinigt und nach Geschlechtern aufgeschlüsselt. Die positive Entwicklung des deutschen Arbeitsmarkts seit 2005 bestätigt sich und ist (beinahe) unabhängig von Teilzeiteffekten....

Given that for France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands the unemployment rates are best classified as <italic>I</italic>(1), we apply permanent-transitory decompositions based on co-integrated Vector Autoregressions (VAR) with relevant variables (labour productivity, wages, tax wedges, foreign relative prices)...

For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...

Short answer: It helps a lot when other important variables are excluded from the information set. Longer answer: We revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for...

Cogan et al. (2009, 2010) claim that the stimulus package passed by the United States Congress in February 2009 had a multiplier far below one. However, the stimulus’ multiplier strongly depends on the assumed monetary policy response. Based on official statements from the Fed chairman, the...