This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade...

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (2-digit ISIC) based on the distribution of exports before the reform by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2009) that much of the growth in trade after trade...

For the OECD as whole, as well as for the U.S., manufacturing exports have been rising, while manufacturing output (both expressed as a share of total GDP) has been falling.  We examine the prevalence of this puzzling fact across individual OECD countries, as well as for particular...