"We forecast unemployment for the 176 German labour-market districts on a monthly basis. Because of their small size, strong spatial interdependencies exist between these regional units. To account for these as well as for the heterogeneity in the regional development over time, we apply...

"'What makes start-ups out of unemployment different?' To answer this question we formulate a theoretical sketch for start-up activity out of unemployment. Furthermore, we estimate spatial autoregressive models for the regional start-up rates out of unemployment as well as out of employment with...

This paper presents an outline of the so-called Shift-Share Regression and an application of this method to the analysis of employment development. The method used is not a deterministic decomposition such as the classical Shift-Share-Analysis, but a powerful, yet simple and flexible econometric...

Your very private job agency: Job referrals based on residential location networks This paper analyzes job referral effects that are based on residential location. We use georeferenced record data for the entire working population (liable to social security) and the corresponding establishments...

"It is broadly accepted that two aspects regarding the modeling strategy are essential for the accuracy of forecast: a parsimonious model focusing on the important structures, and the quality of prospective information. Here, we establish a Global VAR framework, a technique that considers a...

This paper analyzes job referral effects that are based on residential location. We use geo-referenced record data for the entire working population and the corresponding establishments in the German Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan area. We estimate the propensity of two persons to work at the same...

"This paper analyzes job referral effects that are based on residential location. We use georeferenced record data for the entire working population (liable to social security) and the corresponding establishments in the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan area, which is Germany's largest (and EU's second...

In this paper we analyze the consequences of small labour-market entry cohorts on (un)employment in Western Germany. From a theoretical point of view, small entry cohorts may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to “inverse cohort crowding” or on the other hand increase...

"This paper analyses the performance of migrants on the German labour market and its dependence on the tasks performed on their jobs. Recent work suggests quantifying the imperfect substitutability relationship between migrants and natives as a measure for the hurdles migrants have to face. Our...