This paper provides new evidence on the behaviour of euro area aggregate loans to the private sector. Using a sample covering the last twenty years, a cointegrating vector linking the real stock of loans to a small set of domestic macroeconomic variables is found. Besides real GDP and prices,...

JEL Classification: E41, C22, C32

This paper investigates whether output and inflation respond asymmetrically to credit shocks in the euro area. The methodology, based on a non-linear VAR system, follows work by Balke (2000) for the US. The results reveal evidence of threshold effects related to credit conditions in the economy....

This paper studies the determinants of loans to the private sector in the euro area. Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies one cointegrating relationship linking real loans, GDP and interest rates. This relationship implies that in the long-run real loans are positively related to...

The aim of this paper is to isolate the long run movements on equilibrium interest rate (or natural rate of interest) and potential growth. This estimations has been compute for US and Germany using a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams that is based on a Kalman Filter estimation of...

The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal stemming from money. The spectral analysis of time series...

This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary shocks with a special focus on the effects of foreign money ("global liquidity") on the euro area. We estimate structural VAR models for the euro area and the global economy including a global liquidity aggregate. The impulse...

This paper presents a comparison of two new advanced statistical short-term wind-power forecasting systems developed by two independent research teams. The input variables used in both systems were the same: forecasted meteorological variable values obtained from a numerical weather prediction...