We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...

To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, misspecification, estimation uncertainty, and mismeasurement...

We explore whether forecasting an aggregate variable using information on its disaggregate components can improve the prediction mean squared error over forecasting the disaggregates and aggregating those forecasts, or using only aggregate information in forecasting the aggregate. An implication...

To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis-specification, estimation uncertainty and...

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

This study presents a multivariate analysis of the stability of long-run relationships between variables that influence the conduct and transmission process of the German monetary policy. The initial VAR comprises the variables real money M3, real GNP, the inflation rate, a long-term and a...

A financial stress index for the United States is introduced—one used by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board during the financial crisis of 2008–2009—and its׳ interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy is investigated using a Markov-switching VAR model, estimated...